Wednesday, November 25, 2009

The Pink Elephant

Human beings and may be all beings are eternal optimists. They live with fear and greed, but the extent of fear is always controlled.
In all the past recessions, there had always been some people who had predicted them. The problem with a depression is this; it is too difficult for a person to accept that businesses are going to shut down globally. Only a year ago I remember saying that I am bullish about India and even 3 years from now (then) India will be jumping away to a glorious rise.
I still have to understand how I have accepted this possibility of another depression where many more people, globally, will lose jobs and many more businesses will shut shop. People will grow scared, consumption will be reduced drastically and a global deflationary spiral will begin.
For all the naysayers, explain to yourself why this cannot happen.
The way the world is linked right now, it is entirely possible for this scenario to materialize. I will, of course, be sad if this happens.
The problem is that I do not see any engine(s) that will rescue the global economy. Somewhere, my belief links back to the black swan. Just because you haven't seen one, doesn't mean that it doesn't exist.
Would I put my money to back this? I don't have money that belongs to me and if I did I would try my best to allocate a portion of it to doomsday protection.

People always build their theories based on the past; they try to link the current to the dot-com bubble, the 1970s oil crisis, the great depression, recessions in the late 1800s and so forth. The thing about the great depression is that if you speak to someone, undoubtedly they will mumble something about deflation and unemployment. But look around and look within and ask yourself, do you really know what the great depression was all about, how it was caused and how economies came out of it?

There is a price for everything, and so WHEN there is a depression, there will also be an end to it and therefore, a recovery. The beauty of time is that when somethings are chronicled, one can look back.

How will I react when I look back at this article in 2018?

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