Wednesday, February 24, 2010

The turbulent teens?

Powerful article
Talks about forgetting the last 30-40 years and looking at deeper history and what has happened during banking crises in the past; clearly points to developing nations as the next wave. The 'picture' below speaks of the 'developed' countries' fates.


The write-up keeps talking of expected debt to GDP changes; however, how will these be funded? Through devaluations? Possible.
What scares (and excites) me the most is the black swan. What if global financial markets seize up; not related to liquidity as was the case in 2008 (Damn! Can't believe its 1.5 years already!!), rather, related to extreme volatility in forex prices and institutional / individual aversion to trading internationally.
What if counterparties for simple derivatives such as forwards or futures are difficult to find?
That is the real pickle. The black swan. (I know, it's a cliche)

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