Friday, February 26, 2010


Will the unemployment rate spike again after May?
Rationale - Students will begin graduating in May and some time after May, these students will begin filing unemployment claims. I believe the lag is 6 months, but even then, US will have a huge influx of people looking for jobs and that should lead to a spike. Historic data shows that there are spikes in January and June. Usually, these spikes are followed by cliffs; but things are not usual.
I wait to see what happens 4 months from now.

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